A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
